China is an emerging superpower from Asia. China has shown a significant amount of raise in GDP and development in the country. The credit to this development has given to the policies and steps taken by the Chinese Govt. in past. The expansion of their business is appreciable but nowadays these Chinese investments forced other countries to double check of their decisions to invite China into their country. We have different examples like Sri Lanka & Pakistan etc. China has invested in those countries heavily and taken their assets on a lease. This is creating a pressure on the other countries like USA and India.
China has now extended his reach to Oceania, and it seems like Australia is a hot spot for China. Australia also has given a boost to relations with China. I am not saying the relationship with China is bad for Australia, but I am saying Australia is over-dependent upon China.
To understand let's see in detail.
1. Exports and Imports –
When you talk about a prosperous country, then Export and Import will be an essential factor for a nation. Goods, as well as countries from where you are importing, is also crucial. Nowadays trades are taken very seriously as you can see in a trade war between the US and China. So in today’s world, we cannot make it on ease, and we also cannot depend on one country or a single product, If that particular country or a single product fails, then it can cause a problem to parent countries economy. For, e.g., Venezuela is suffering due to overdependence on the Oil sector, etc.
Australia is not over-dependent on China till now, but it is one of the most significant contributors to export and import of Australia.
Let’s see with the help of graph.
- US$ Billions 2017 (estimated)
As you can see in the above graph, China has almost double trades with Australia than the closest competitor. This is 29.6% of total Australia’s exports
.
Imports from China in Australia increased to 5759019.55 AUD THO in January from 4928366.67 AUD THO in December of 2016. Imports from China in Australia averaged 1725356.64 AUD THO from 1988 until 2017, reaching an all-time high of 6171473.54 AUD THO in November of 2015 and a record low of 52000 AUD THO in April of 1988.
From above we can see how China is rising in Australian export and import. This is because of Australia and China’s free trade agreement. Due to such a dependence on a country's relations with that country or another side of the world is like to be disturbed.
China has threatened Australia with a trade war if a foreign interference law is not being lowered.
If this happens, Australia will suffer a huge blow, due to a gap between China and other countries.
Australia should try to increase the business with other countries in the world so that the difference created in between China and other countries can be lowered and such threats from China won’t affect countries decision-making process.
2. Agricultural –
Australian agricultural is not a significant contributor to their GDP (only 3%), but it is still the gross value of Australian farm products in 2016-17 was $ 60 Million EST. And out of it about 77% they export.
- A$ Million 2016 (estimated)
As you can see in the above graph China is also top here with 19.9% of the total share of the market and the closest competitor is at 10.1%. China in here also had a double the market than Japan.
China hasn’t stopped here. China to become the most prominent foreign owner of Australian farmland.
The first register, for 2015-16, showed 14.1 percent of Australia’s 371 million hectares of agricultural land — or about 52.1 million hectares — had some level of foreign investment. More than half that foreign investment land was in Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Foreign investors were most interested in the livestock industry, which accounted for nearly 88 percent of total hectares of foreign investment in 2015-16.
Chinese nationals or companies had some investment in 1.5 million hectares of Australian agricultural land, in 2015-16. That jumped to 14.4 million hectares in 2016-17, with the actual Chinese portion at 9.1 million hectares. The rise was primarily due to the Australian Outback Beef joint venture between mining magnate Gina Rinehart and Chinese partner Shanghai Cred buying the 10 million hectare S Kidman & Co Cattle Empire.
The Australian Tax Office's second annual update to the Federal Government's register of foreign-owned farmland shows Chinese investment has risen from about 1.5 million hectares to almost 14.5 million hectares.
3. Manufacturing –
Chinese investment in Australia Growth occurred in mining and energy, with a 448% increase in finance, healthcare (20%), transport (2%) and smaller areas such as services and manufacture (38%).
Industry
|
Value (A$M)
|
% of 2017
|
Change from 2016
|
% Change
|
Manufacturing
|
155
|
1
|
155
|
-
|
Transport
|
400
|
3
|
9
|
2
|
Mining
|
4,598
|
35
|
3,759
|
448
|
Health care
|
1,630
|
12
|
276
|
20
|
- DFAT
Mining was the most significant sector for Chinese investment in 2017 with 35% of total ODI, followed by real estate (33%), healthcare (12%), food & agribusiness (8%) and infrastructure (4%).
The mining sector saw 12 deals announced in 2017 totaling AUD 4.6 billion, a rise of 448% from 2016. This substantial increase was mostly driven by the AUD 3.4 billion acquisition of Rio Tinto’s thermal coal assets by Yancoal.
Chinese capital was again focused in NSW in 2017 with AUD 5.6 billion or 42% of total investment value. Victoria experienced uplift from 25% of total investment in 2016 to 36% in 2017. Western Australia received AUD 1.9 billion in Chinese investment or 14% of total inflows, up from AUD 1.1 billion in 2016. Queensland attracted AUD 667 million of investment, 57% of which was healthcare related. While South Australia attracted AUD 455 million or 3% of the investment, into infrastructure, energy and food & agribusiness deal.
Chinese investment in Australia is declining as compared to earlier years.
4. Service –
The linkages between China and Australia in education spending tell a similar story. Average education spending from 2006/07 to 2016/17 rose from A$16,225 to A$26,350 by Chinese students (just behind India in percentage increase), although average spending across all countries in Australia has also increased, unlike for tourism, by about 58% (versus China’s 62%). The number of students from China has risen by 340% since 2006/07, accounting for over 53% of the increase in foreign students, now totaling over 182,000 for 2016/17.
5. Real estate –
30th June 2017 Authorities said to have A$38.8 Billion is invested by the Chinese investors. Australian commercial real estate was second only to mining in popularity for Chinese buyers, attracting one-third of all Chinese investment in Australia, worth $4.4b, or 11.5 percent of China’s total spending on real estate globally.
“Australian real estate remains a key destination for Chinese capital. The macroeconomic framework is supportive, while the market is attractive from a global perspective – economic fundamentals are robust, population growth is solid, market transparency is high, and returns are broadly higher relative to comparable markets globally,” said Michael Zhang, head of JLL’s China Desk in Australia.
Mr. Zhang said demand for “trophy assets and larger acquisitions” gave way to investments in the $5m to $49m range, making up 63 percent of transactions in 2017.
Rank in 2017
|
Economy
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
% of total
|
5-year trend % growth
|
1
|
USA
|
876.4
|
853.2
|
896.6
|
27.5
|
6.9
|
2
|
UK
|
481.4
|
520.7
|
481.4
|
14.7
|
4.2
|
3
|
Belgium
|
247.1
|
270.1
|
305.3
|
9.3
|
9.6
|
4
|
Japan
|
201.6
|
215.7
|
219.2
|
6.7
|
7.6
|
6
|
Singapore
|
98.7
|
91.2
|
82.0
|
2.5
|
5.6
|
9
|
China
|
75.4
|
84.1
|
65.0
|
2.0
|
21.6
|
- DFAT
As you can see China has the most % growth in the country mentioned above.
Above are some of the factors from my perspective that are showing the increase of Chinese investment in Australia. So why I said this can be a reason to worry?
Let’s see why I said it.
China has threatened Australia with a trade war if growing lack of trust is continuous and Australia is attempting to bring in laws to stop foreign donations. It seems China is having a problem with this.
Many of said that China is interfering with Australia’s policies. One of the examples is China had forced Australia to leave Quad group which is made for naval exercise.
This is one known example worldwide; it is a chance of many still hidden to us.
China can use this against Australia and can manipulate them in upcoming years.
This all is happening with Australia due to dependence on China as you have seen above. There are not only these things.
As you can see here China also topped in foreign investment in Australia so due to all above factors Australia has to listen to China’s opinions, and this will lead to poor relations with other countries, and this creates a circle of these decisions.
Just imagine if China one day rejects to continue the same business with Australia then it can become a severe problem in Australia.
I am not saying that relation with China is going to hurt Australia in the long run. I am just saying Australia should stop depending on China there are various countries in the world. This can help the Australian economy to reach more customers.
Australia has taken steps to counter this situation, and there are many other steps which are going to be made by them.
Conclusion –
Australia has known the effects of depending on China. So now it’s time for Australia to move forward and connect with other countries also. China will be forcing them in upcoming years as Trade war, and the South China Sea’s topic will be on rising aside. So finally answer to my question is it a reason to worry?
I would say
"Yes."
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